Anticipation & signals.

Anticipation & signals.

Structured horizon-scanning that turns weak signals into actionable intelligence for boards, foundations and federal offices.

Foresight is decision-relevant when it is structured, sourced and time-stamped. SIPI’s foresight cadence delivers quarterly horizon notes that surface emerging signals, an annual Swiss scenario set projecting ten-year pathways, and on-demand sector deep-dives for institutional partners who require tailored intelligence.

Quarterly horizon notes. Annual scenario sets.

Our quarterly horizon notes track weak signals across six STEEP-L dimensions: Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political and Legal. Each signal is Delphi-validated by a rotating panel of domain experts and carries a transparent confidence rating. The annual scenario set synthesizes these signals into coherent ten-year pathways specific to the Swiss context, enabling institutional actors to stress-test strategy against plausible futures rather than single-point forecasts.

Method: STEEP-L scanning + Delphi validation

SIPI’s foresight methodology combines systematic environmental scanning with rigorous validation. Six STEEP-L dimensions provide the scanning framework. A Delphi-validated weak-signal panel ensures that emerging trends are assessed by practitioners with domain expertise. Transparent confidence ratings accompany every published signal, allowing decision-makers to calibrate their response to the strength of the evidence.

This approach is designed for institutional users—boards, foundations, federal offices—who require foresight that is both actionable and defensible. SIPI does not publish speculative futures; we publish structured intelligence with clear provenance and confidence bounds.

Cadence and publication.

Foresight outputs ship on a public twice-yearly cadence: spring scan (signal collection + Delphi round 1) and autumn synthesis (Delphi round 2 + cross-pillar implications). Methodology and indicator catalogue are released under CC BY-SA 4.0, version-tagged for reproducibility. Every published scenario is accompanied by its provenance trail: signal sources, panellist composition, dissent annotations, and confidence intervals.

Released editions appear in the Insights stream →